Crop Research

Multiple regression analysis of durian mortality during drought induced by saline intrusion and yield determinants in the Vietnam Mekong Delta


DOI: 10.31830/2454-1761.2025.ROC-1213    | Article Id: ROC-1213 | Page : 172-178
Citation :- Multiple regression analysis of durian mortality during drought induced by saline intrusion and yield determinants in the Vietnam Mekong Delta. Crop Res. 60: 172-178
LE LY VU VI, LE HUU HAI, TRAN BA LINH AND LE VINH THUC villv91@gmail.com
Address : School of Agriculture, Can Tho University Campus II, 3/2 Street, Xuan Khanh Ward, Ninh Kieu District, Can Tho City, Vietnam
Submitted Date : 16-06-2025
Accepted Date : 14-07-2025
Online Published:

Abstract

Durian is one of the most economically important fruit crops in Vietnam, yet its productivity was severely impacted by the 2020 drought caused by saltwater intrusion in the Mekong Delta. This extreme event underscored the urgent need to understand factors influencing both drought resilience and crop yield. Limited research exists on how farm-level practices interact with environmental stressors in durian cultivation, creating a gap in evidence-based adaptation strategies. To address this, a cross-sectional study was conducted in 2022–2023 across 60 durian farms in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam. The study aimed to identify key agronomic and environmental factors affecting durian mortality during the 2020 drought and yield performance during the recovery period. Multiple linear regression and non-linear regression models were employed to identify the predictors of durian mortality during the drought and subsequent yield performance. The regression model revealed a strong correlation between durian mortality rate and its predictors (R² = 0.827). Results indicated that for every 1% increase in the proportion of the Monthong variety, durian mortality under drought conditions increased by 0.36% (95% CI: 0.22–0.49). Furthermore, durian yield following the drought was found to be negatively correlated with irrigation volume. These findings lay the foundation for developing drought coping strategies in durian orchards, highlighting the need for further research on optimising variety selection, irrigation practices, and fertilisation management

Keywords

Drought durian irrigation mortality yield

References

Chen, Z., Li, S., Wan, X. and Liu, S. (2022). Strategies of tree species to adapt to drought from leaf stomatal regulation and stem embolism resistance to root properties. Front. Plant Sci. 13: doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2022.926535.
Chi, C. M. and Wang, Z. C. (2010). Characterizing salt-affected soils of Songnen plain using saturated paste and 1:5 soil-to-water extraction methods. Arid Land Res. Manag. 24: 1–11. doi.org/10.1080/15324980903439362.
Dang, L. V. and Hung, N. N. (2023). Effects of the age of raised beds on the physicochemical characteristics of fruit orchard soil in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta. Peer J. 11: doi.org/10.7717/peerj.16178.
Em, T. H., Trung, P. T., Hung, N. N., Quynh, L. N., Dang, L. V., Quyen, N. K. and Ngoc, N. P. (2024). Durian cultivation status and technique in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta. J. Vietnam Agric. Sci. Technol. 5: 48–54.
Gia Huy, T., Thi, N. P. A., Do, H. D. K. and Khang, D. T. (2024). The complete chloroplast genome of Durio zibethinus L. cultivar Ri6 (Helicteroideae, Malvaceae). MTDNA Part B. 9: 625–30. doi.org/10.1080/23802359.2024.2350619.
Hau, T. V. and Hieu, T. S. (2017). Off-season production of durian in the Mekong delta, Viet Nam. Acta Hort. 1186: 85–98. doi.org/10.17660/ActaHortic.2017.1186.13.
Himes, A., Emerson, P., McClung, R., Renninger, H., Rosenstiel, T. and Stanton, B. (2021). Leaf traits indicative of drought resistance in hybrid poplar. Agric. Water Manag. 246: doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2020.106676.
Honsho, C., Yonermoro,  K. and Sugiura, A. (2004). Durian floral differentiation and flowering habit. J. Amer. Soc. Hort. Sci. 129: 42-45.
Jagtap, G. P., Dhavale, M. C. and Dey, U. (2012). Symptomatology, survey and surveillance of citrus gummosis disease caused by Phytophthora spp. Sci. J. Agric. 1: 14-20
Jittamai, P., Toek, S., Sathaporn, P., Kongkanjana, K. and Chanlawong, N. (2024). Risk mitigation in durian cultivation in Thailand using the house of risk (HOR) method: A case study of Pak Chong GI durian. Sustainability 17: doi.org/10.3390/su17010222.
Ketsa, S., Wisutiamonkul, A., Palapol, Y. and Paull, R. E. (2020). The Durian: Botany, horticulture, and utilization. In: Horticultural reviews (Eds. Warrington, I). Wiley, USA. pp. 143-71. doi.org/10.1002/9781119625407.ch4.
Kongtragoul, P., Ishikawa, K. and Ishii, H. (2021). Metalaxyl resistance of Phytophthora palmivora causing durian diseases in Thailand. Horticulturae 7: doi:10.3390/ horticulturae7100375.
Kozai, N. and Higuchi, H. (2011.). Anatomical verification of Thai local classifications of durian (Durio zibethinus Murr.) floral development and vegetative conversion of the buds. Trop. Agric. Dev. 55: 162-65. doi:10.11248/jsta.55.162.
Kühnhammer, K., Van Haren, J., Kübert, A., Bailey, K., Dubbert, M., Hu, J., Ladd, S. N., Meredith, L. K., Werner, C. and Beyer, M. (2023). Deep roots mitigate drought impacts on tropical trees despite limited quantitative contribution to transpiration. Sci. Total Environ. 893:  doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.164763.
Minh, N. P. (2021). Preharvest fumigation of 1-Methylcyclopropene, aminoethoxyvinylglycine, chlorine dioxide and nitric oxide for improving postharvest quality of durian (Durio zibethinus) fruit. Res. Crop. 22: 712-19.
Minh, V. Q., Tri, L. Q., Khoa, L. V., Du, T. T., Vu, P. T., Dung, T. V. and Dong, N. M. (2023). Rice soil fertility classification in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam. AGRIVITA 45: 56-68.
Misman, N., Samsulrizal, N. H., Noh, A. L., Wahab, M. A., Ahmad, K. and Ahmad Azmi, N. S. (2022). Host range and control strategies of Phytophthora palmivora in southeast Asia perennial crops. Pertanika J. Trop. Agric. Sci. 45: 991–1019. doi.org/10.47836/pjtas.45.4.09.
Park, E., Loc, H. H., Van Binh, D. and Kantoush, S. (2022). The worst 2020 saline water intrusion disaster of the past century in the Mekong Delta: Impacts, causes and management implications. Ambio. 51: 691-99. doi.org/10.1007/s13280-021-01577-z.
Rossi, G., Beni, C. and Neri, U. (2024). Organic mulching: A sustainable technique to improve soil quality. Sustainability 16: doi.org/10.3390/su162310261.
Tran, D. D., Thuc, P. T. B., Park, E., Hang, P. T. T., Man, D. B. and Wang, J. (2024). Extent of saltwater intrusion and freshwater exploitability in the coastal Vietnamese Mekong Delta assessed by gauging records and numerical simulations. J. Hydrol. 630:  doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.130655.
Vi, L. L. V., Hai, L. H., Linh, T. B., and Thuc, L. V. (2025). Optimizing durian production: impacts of drip irrigation and organic mulching on yield, fruit quality and soil properties. Res. Crop. 26: 298-305. doi:10.31830/2348-7542.2025.ROC-1211.
Wang, J., Li, C., Li, L., Reynolds, M., Mao, X. and Jing, R. (2021). Exploitation of drought tolerance-related genes for crop improvement. Int. J. Mol. Sci. 22:  doi.org/10.3390/ijms221910265.
Zhang, H., Shi, L., Lu, H., Shao, Y., Liu, S. and Fu, S. (2020). Drought promotes soil phosphorus transformation and reduces phosphorus bioavailability in a temperate forest. Sci. Total Environ. 732: doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139295.

Global Footprints